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From: PHIL SWANN <swann@TVPredictions.com>
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Subject: Special Report! TiVo: Now or Never?
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Date: Tue, 6 Aug 2002 23:24:00 -0400 (EDT)
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TVPredictions.com Newsletter (August 7, 2002)
The #1 Newsletter on the Future of TV
Hi Everyone,
First of all, I want to welcome those<br>
subscribers who are getting this newsletter<br>
for the first time. Here you will find <br>
hard-hitting commentary and analysis<br>
on issues related to the future of television.<br>
Whether it's Interactive TV, the battle between<br>
the cable news networks, the latest in <br>
the Emmy race, or the federal government's<br>
fight to promote HDTV, TV Predictions will <br>
give you the scoop -- before it actually <br>
occurs. And, as long-time subscribers<br>
will tell you, we pull no punches. <br>
<br>
(FYI -- TVPredictions.com, based in Los <br>
Angeles, is owned and managed by Phillip Swann,<br>
author of "TV dot Com: The Future of <br>
Interactive Television." He has been <br>
quoted as an expert on TV issues in publications<br>
such as The Hollywood Reporter, Variety and <br>
Electronic Media.) <br>
<br>
Now, in this issue, we offer an all-new edition of...<br>
the Interactive TV Power Rankings! Plus: Why TiVo<br>
desperately needs to boost its sub numbers during<br>
the next five months. And, the latest news on <br>
the future of TV. <br>
-------------
IN THIS ISSUE
-------------
Interactive TV Power Rankings!
TiVo: Now or Never?
Breaking News
Coming Attractions!
||| =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=>>
Be a Star!
||| =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=>>
http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=tpysjsn6.e9iqjsn6.s8u5brn6&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tvpredictions.com%2Fadvertising1.html
By advertising today in <br>
<b>TVPredictions'<br>
weekly newsletter!</b><br>
<br>
Reach more than <br>
<b>3,000 subscribers,</b><br>
including TV's top<br>
decision-makers. <br>
<br>
<b>Promoting</b> an Event?<br>
<br>
Selling a <b>New</b> Service?<br>
<br>
Looking for <b>Brand</b> Awareness?<br>
<br>
Well..advertise already!!<br>
<br>
Past advertisers include:<br>
<br>
<b>American Film Institute<br>
The Carmel Group<br>
ISeeTV<br>
Iacta<br>
Espial</b><br>
<br>
Learn how YOU can<br>
reach our targeted<br>
audience, by clicking below<br>
or sending an e-mail to:<br>
<br>
<b>advertising@<br>
TVPredictions.com</b> <br>
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
Interactive TV Power Rankings!
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=tpysjsn6.e9iqjsn6.pqhvuqn6&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.TVPredictions.com%2Frankings.html
Every week, we publish the Interactive <br>
TV Power Rankings. We rank the 10 companies<br>
that are benefiting most from the deployment<br>
of new TV technology. <br>
<br>
This week's highlights:<br>
Will the FCC approve the Echostar-DIRECTV<br>
merger?; why did Cox scale back its Video<br>
on Demand plans?; why did Liberty Media buy<br>
a cable company in the Netherlands?; and <br>
who at NBC is smoking crack?<br>
Find out in this all-new edition of...<br>
The Interactive TV Power Rankings!<br>
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
TiVo: Now or Never?
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=tpysjsn6.e9iqjsn6.wxb5wqn6&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tvpredictions.com%2Fpredictions.html
Ready for this?<br>
<br>
The next five months could determine whether<br>
TiVo, the Personal Video Recorder service,<br>
ultimately survives as a business.<br>
<br>
TiVo, which launched five years ago, has less <br>
than 500,000 subscribers. The company's stock<br>
dipped below three this week. And network execs<br>
are openly questioning whether the digital recorder,<br>
which permits skipping commercials with a few <br>
clicks of the remote, will destroy their advertising<br>
models. There even have been hints that the <br>
networks could support a move by the cable <br>
industry to offer a PVR that does not permit<br>
commercial skipping. And that PVR would not <br>
be a TiVo. <br>
<br>
To its credit, TiVo has been remarkably successful <br>
at building brand loyalty and awareness. TiVo <br>
reports that 97 percent of its subscribers have<br>
recommended the service to a friend. And when<br>
people talk about PVRs, they say TiVo. (Just <br>
like the way people say "Coke" when they talk<br>
about soft drinks. )<br>
<br>
But Wall Street, the media and the industry <br>
are all growing impatient. TiVo needs to start<br>
putting some big numbers on the board -- <br>
and it needs to do it this holiday season. If <br>
it doesn't, stock analysts who have supported TiVo <br>
until now will run for the hills. That will push<br>
the company's stock price down even further. And<br>
if that happens, TiVo could have just two choices:<br>
Sell the company under duress or wait until its <br>
funding dries up. <br>
<br>
Consequently, I predict that TiVo will launch <br>
an intensive marketing blitz over the next <br>
five months, right through the holiday season.<br>
The blitz will include a sharp increase in <br>
retail distribution, TV advertising and PR <br>
efforts. The company needs to show Wall <br>
Street -- and the industry -- that it will be <br>
the brand leader in the PVR category. And it<br>
needs to show that it can generate<br>
mass consumer demand. <br>
<br>
How does TiVo demonstrate that?<br>
<br>
Anything short of 750,000 subs at year's end<br>
will have people questioning whether TiVo has<br>
the right stuff. Cable execs, who are watching<br>
TiVo closely, might decide that adding the <br>
service is not such a great selling point <br>
after all. And Echostar, which currently does<br>
not have an agreement with TiVo, may decide<br>
to stay with its unbranded PVR service after <br>
its merger with DIRECTV is approved in D.C. <br>
(TiVo currently has a partnership with DIRECTV,<br>
but it's unclear what will happen to the deal if <br>
the merger is approved.) <br>
<br>
So there is much at stake -- and it's not extreme<br>
to say that TiVo's ultimate future could be decided<br>
in the next several months. <br>
<br>
Will it succeed? I predict that TiVo will achieve<br>
a partial success. The company will boost its <br>
subscriber numbers and it will maintain its claim<br>
as the #1 PVR service. However, in time, I <br>
also predict it will decide to sell the company<br>
to a large media outfit, such as Sony or perhaps<br>
even Liberty Media. This would give TiVo the <br>
necessary funding and industry connections<br>
for long-term growth and survival.<br>
<br>
To see more predictions on the future of TV, <br>
click below! <br>
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
Breaking News
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=tpysjsn6.e9iqjsn6.rqhvuqn6&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tvpredictions.com
Did you know that...<br>
<br>
* Cox Cable has decided to slow down its <br>
roll-out of Video on Demand?<br>
<br>
* Consumers have no idea what HDTV is <br>
all about, according to a new study?<br>
<br>
* One top network exec says viewers may <br>
soon have to pay for off-air, free TV? <br>
<br>
* According to the Associated Press, <br>
the cable news networks may be spreading fear<br>
in our culture?<br>
<br>
* Las Vegas says West Wing's Martin Sheen<br>
is a shoo-in for a Best Actor Emmy? <br>
<br>
These are just some of the many stories now <br>
available for reading at TVPredictions.com <br>
You can also read our prediction on CNN and<br>
Larry King, our expose of Forrester Research<br>
and Josh Bernoff, and perhaps our most <br>
provocative story, "Sex and the Interactive <br>
TV." <br>
<br>
Click below to get the latest on the future of <br>
TV! <br>
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
Coming Attractions!
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=tpysjsn6.e9iqjsn6.rqhvuqn6&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tvpredictions.com
The TVPredictions.com newsletter is published<br>
every Friday. Coming in future issues:<br>
<br>
* Donahue: Will He Survive the Cable News War?<br>
<br>
* What's Wrong -- and Right -- With Interactive<br>
TV? <br>
<br>
* Why HDTV Could Change Hollywood Forever<br>
<br>
* Who Will Win the Emmy? An Exclusive Forecast.<br>
<br>
And check in daily at TVPredictions.com for more<br>
coverage of issues related to the future of TV. <br>
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
------------------------------------------------
email: swann@TVPredictions.com
voice: 310-314-0603
web: http://www.tvpredictions.com
------------------------------------------------
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request, by TVPredictions.com.
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"6" color=3D"#ffffff">TVPredictions.com Newsletter</font></td>
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=09<td align=3D"left">=A0=A0<font size=3D"2" face=3D"Verdana,Arial,Helvetic=
a" color=3D"#003366"><b>The #1 Newsletter on the Future of TV</b></font></t=
d>
=09<td align=3D"right"><font size=3D"2" face=3D"Verdana,Arial,Helvetica" co=
lor=3D"#003366"><b>August 7, 2002</b></font>=A0=A0</td>
</tr>
</table>
<p>
<table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" width=3D"100%">
<tr>
=09<td width=3D"190" bgcolor=3D"#EEEEDF" align=3D"center" valign=3D"top">
=09<!-- Begin Table of Contents Header Table -->
=09=09<table border=3D"1" bordercolor=3D"#003366" cellpadding=3D"2" cellspa=
cing=3D"0" width=3D"190">
=09=09<tr>
=09=09=09<td bgcolor=3D"#ffffff" align=3D"center" valign=3D"top">
=09=09=09<font face=3D"Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif" size=3D"3" co=
lor=3D"#003366">
=09=09=09<b>in this issue</b>
=09=09=09</font>
=09=09=09</td>
=09=09</tr>
=09=09</table>
=09<!-- End Table of Contents Header Table -->
=09
=09<!-- Begin Article Headlines Table -->
=09=09<table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"2" cellspacing=3D"0" width=3D"190"=
>
=09=09<tr>
=09=09=09<td bgcolor=3D"#DBE8F4" align=3D"center" valign=3D"top">
=09=09=09<font size=3D"2" face=3D"Verdana,Arial,Helvetica" color=3D"#003366=
"><b>
=09=09=09<br><a href=3D"#article1">Interactive TV Power Rankings!</a>
=09=09=09<p><a href=3D"#article2">TiVo: Now or Never?</a>
=09=09=09<p><a href=3D"#article3">Breaking News</a>
=09=09=09<p><a href=3D"#article4">Coming Attractions!</a>
=09=09=09<p><a href=3D"#article5"></a>
=09=09 <br><br></font>
=09=09 </td>
=09=09</tr>
=09=09<tr>
=09=09=09<td bgcolor=3D"#003366" align=3D"center" valign=3D"top"><br></td>
=09=09</tr>
=09=09</table>
<!-- End Article Headlines Table -->
<!-- PROMOTION START -->
=09=09<font size=3D"2" face=3D"Verdana,Arial,Helvetica" color=3D"#003366">
=09=09<br><b>Be a Star!</b><br>
=09=09<!-- Promotion Image -->
=09=09<br>
=09=09By advertising today in <br>
<b>TVPredictions'<br>
weekly newsletter!</b><br>
<br>
Reach more than <br>
<b>3,000 subscribers,</b><br>
including TV's top<br>
decision-makers. <br>
<br>
<b>Promoting</b> an Event?<br>
<br>
Selling a <b>New</b> Service?<br>
<br>
Looking for <b>Brand</b> Awareness?<br>
<br>
Well..advertise already!!<br>
<br>
Past advertisers include:<br>
<br>
<b>American Film Institute<br>
The Carmel Group<br>
ISeeTV<br>
Iacta<br>
Espial</b><br>
<br>
Learn how YOU can<br>
reach our targeted<br>
audience, by clicking below<br>
or sending an e-mail to:<br>
<br>
<b>advertising@<br>
TVPredictions.com</b> <br>
<br><br><a href=3D"http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=3Dtpysjsn6.e9iqjsn6.s8u5=
brn6&p=3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.tvpredictions.com%2Fadvertising1.html">Be a Star!=
</A><br><br>
=09=09</font>
<!-- PROMOTION END -->
=09</td>
=09<td rowspan=3D"2" width=3D"420" valign=3D"top">
=09<!-- Begin Greeting and Intro paragraph -->
=09=09<table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"2" cellspacing=3D"0" width=3D"100%=
">
=09=09<tr>
=09=09=09<td bgcolor=3D"#ffffff" valign=3D"top">=A0=A0</td>
=09=09=09<td bgcolor=3D"#ffffff" valign=3D"top">
<font size=3D"2" face=3D"Verdana,Arial,Helvetica">
<b>Hi Everyone,</b>
=09=09=09<br>First of all, I want to welcome those<br>
subscribers who are getting this newsletter<br>
for the first time. Here you will find <br>
hard-hitting commentary and analysis<br>
on issues related to the future of television.<br>
Whether it's Interactive TV, the battle between<br>
the cable news networks, the latest in <br>
the Emmy race, or the federal government's<br>
fight to promote HDTV, TV Predictions will <br>
give you the scoop -- before it actually <br>
occurs. And, as long-time subscribers<br>
will tell you, we pull no punches. <br>
<br>
(FYI -- TVPredictions.com, based in Los <br>
Angeles, is owned and managed by Phillip Swann,<br>
author of "TV dot Com: The Future of <br>
Interactive Television." He has been <br>
quoted as an expert on TV issues in publications<br>
such as The Hollywood Reporter, Variety and <br>
Electronic Media.) <br>
<br>
Now, in this issue, we offer an all-new edition of...<br>
the Interactive TV Power Rankings! Plus: Why TiVo<br>
desperately needs to boost its sub numbers during<br>
the next five months. And, the latest news on <br>
the future of TV. <br>
=09=09=09<br><br></font>
=09=09=09</td>
=09=09</tr>
=09=09<tr>
=09=09=09<td bgcolor=3D"#003366" colspan=3D"2" height=3D"3" valign=3D"botto=
m"> </td>
=09=09</tr>
=09=09<tr>
=09=09=09<td bgcolor=3D"#ffffff" colspan=3D"2" height=3D"2" valign=3D"botto=
m"> </td>
=09=09</tr>
=09=09<tr>
=09=09=09<td bgcolor=3D"#003366" colspan=3D"2" height=3D"2" valign=3D"botto=
m"> </td>
=09=09</tr>
=09=09</table>
=09<!-- End Greeting and Intro paragraph -->
=09
=09<!-- Begin Article Table -->
=09=09<table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"4" cellspacing=3D"0" width=3D"100%=
">
<tr><td bgcolor=3D"#ffffff" colspan=3D"2" valign=3D"top"><a name=
=3D"article1"></a><font size=3D"2" face=3D"Verdana,Arial,Helvetica" color=
=3D"#003366"><li><b>Interactive TV Power Rankings!</b></font></td></tr><tr>=
<td bgcolor=3D"#ffffff" valign=3D"top">=A0=A0</td><td bgcolor=3D"#ffffff" v=
align=3D"top"><font size=3D"2" face=3D"Verdana,Arial,Helvetica">Every week,=
we publish the Interactive <br>
TV Power Rankings. We rank the 10 companies<br>
that are benefiting most from the deployment<br>
of new TV technology. <br>
<br>
This week's highlights:<br>
Will the FCC approve the Echostar-DIRECTV<br>
merger?; why did Cox scale back its Video<br>
on Demand plans?; why did Liberty Media buy<br>
a cable company in the Netherlands?; and <br>
who at NBC is smoking crack?<br>
Find out in this all-new edition of...<br>
The Interactive TV Power Rankings!<br><br><p><a href=3D"http://rs6.net/tn.j=
sp?t=3Dtpysjsn6.e9iqjsn6.pqhvuqn6&p=3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.TVPredictions.com%2F=
rankings.html">Interactive TV Power Rankings!</A><p></font></td></tr><tr><t=
d bgcolor=3D"#003366" colspan=3D"2" valign=3D"bottom"> </td></tr>=20
<tr><td bgcolor=3D"#DBE8F4" colspan=3D"2" valign=3D"top"><a name=
=3D"article2"></a><font size=3D"2" face=3D"Verdana,Arial,Helvetica" color=
=3D"#003366"><li><b>TiVo: Now or Never?</b></font></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor=
=3D"#DBE8F4" valign=3D"top">=A0=A0</td><td bgcolor=3D"#DBE8F4" valign=3D"to=
p"><font size=3D"2" face=3D"Verdana,Arial,Helvetica">Ready for this?<br>
<br>
The next five months could determine whether<br>=20
TiVo, the Personal Video Recorder service,<br>
ultimately survives as a business.<br>
<br>
TiVo, which launched five years ago, has less <br>
than 500,000 subscribers. The company's stock<br>
dipped below three this week. And network execs<br>
are openly questioning whether the digital recorder,<br>
which permits skipping commercials with a few <br>
clicks of the remote, will destroy their advertising<br>
models. There even have been hints that the <br>
networks could support a move by the cable <br>
industry to offer a PVR that does not permit<br>
commercial skipping. And that PVR would not <br>
be a TiVo. <br>
<br>
To its credit, TiVo has been remarkably successful <br>
at building brand loyalty and awareness. TiVo <br>
reports that 97 percent of its subscribers have<br>
recommended the service to a friend. And when<br>
people talk about PVRs, they say TiVo. (Just <br>
like the way people say "Coke" when they talk<br>
about soft drinks. )<br>
<br>
But Wall Street, the media and the industry <br>
are all growing impatient. TiVo needs to start<br>
putting some big numbers on the board -- <br>
and it needs to do it this holiday season. If <br>
it doesn't, stock analysts who have supported TiVo <br>
until now will run for the hills. That will push<br>
the company's stock price down even further. And<br>
if that happens, TiVo could have just two choices:<br>
Sell the company under duress or wait until its <br>
funding dries up. <br>
<br>
Consequently, I predict that TiVo will launch <br>
an intensive marketing blitz over the next <br>
five months, right through the holiday season.<br>
The blitz will include a sharp increase in <br>
retail distribution, TV advertising and PR <br>
efforts. The company needs to show Wall <br>
Street -- and the industry -- that it will be <br>
the brand leader in the PVR category. And it<br>
needs to show that it can generate<br>
mass consumer demand. <br>
<br>
How does TiVo demonstrate that?<br>
<br>
Anything short of 750,000 subs at year's end<br>
will have people questioning whether TiVo has<br>
the right stuff. Cable execs, who are watching<br>
TiVo closely, might decide that adding the <br>
service is not such a great selling point <br>
after all. And Echostar, which currently does<br>
not have an agreement with TiVo, may decide<br>
to stay with its unbranded PVR service after <br>
its merger with DIRECTV is approved in D.C. <br>
(TiVo currently has a partnership with DIRECTV,<br>
but it's unclear what will happen to the deal if <br>
the merger is approved.) <br>
<br>
So there is much at stake -- and it's not extreme<br>
to say that TiVo's ultimate future could be decided<br>
in the next several months. <br>
<br>
Will it succeed? I predict that TiVo will achieve<br>
a partial success. The company will boost its <br>
subscriber numbers and it will maintain its claim<br>
as the #1 PVR service. However, in time, I <br>
also predict it will decide to sell the company<br>
to a large media outfit, such as Sony or perhaps<br>
even Liberty Media. This would give TiVo the <br>
necessary funding and industry connections<br>
for long-term growth and survival.<br>
<br>
To see more predictions on the future of TV, <br>
click below! <br><br><p><a href=3D"http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=3Dtpysjsn6.e9iqj=
sn6.wxb5wqn6&p=3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.tvpredictions.com%2Fpredictions.html">TiV=
o: Now or Never?</A><p></font></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor=3D"#003366" colspan=
=3D"2" valign=3D"bottom"> </td></tr>=20
=09=09 <tr><td bgcolor=3D"#FFFFFF" colspan=3D"2" valign=3D"top"><a name=3D"=
article3"></a><font size=3D"2" face=3D"Verdana,Arial,Helvetica" color=3D"#0=
03366"><li><b>Breaking News</b></font></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor=3D"#FFFFFF"=
valign=3D"top">=A0=A0</td><td bgcolor=3D"#FFFFFF" valign=3D"top"><font siz=
e=3D"2" face=3D"Verdana,Arial,Helvetica">Did you know that...<br>
<br>
* Cox Cable has decided to slow down its <br>
roll-out of Video on Demand?<br>
<br>
* Consumers have no idea what HDTV is <br>
all about, according to a new study?<br>
<br>
* One top network exec says viewers may <br>
soon have to pay for off-air, free TV? <br>
<br>
* According to the Associated Press, <br>
the cable news networks may be spreading fear<br>
in our culture?<br>
<br>
* Las Vegas says West Wing's Martin Sheen<br>
is a shoo-in for a Best Actor Emmy? <br>
<br>
These are just some of the many stories now <br>
available for reading at TVPredictions.com <br>
You can also read our prediction on CNN and<br>
Larry King, our expose of Forrester Research<br>
and Josh Bernoff, and perhaps our most <br>
provocative story, "Sex and the Interactive <br>
TV." <br>
<br>
Click below to get the latest on the future of <br>
TV! <br><br><p><a href=3D"http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=3Dtpysjsn6.e9iqjsn6.rqhvu=
qn6&p=3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.tvpredictions.com">Breaking News</A><p></font></td=
></tr><tr><td bgcolor=3D"#003366" colspan=3D"2" valign=3D"bottom"> </td></t=
r>=20
=09=09 <tr><td bgcolor=3D"#DBE8F4" colspan=3D"2" valign=3D"top"><a name=3D"=
article4"></a><font size=3D"2" face=3D"Verdana,Arial,Helvetica" color=3D"#0=
03366"><li><b>Coming Attractions!</b></font></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor=3D"#D=
BE8F4" valign=3D"top">=A0=A0</td><td bgcolor=3D"#DBE8F4" valign=3D"top"><fo=
nt size=3D"2" face=3D"Verdana,Arial,Helvetica">The TVPredictions.com newsle=
tter is published<br>
every Friday. Coming in future issues:<br>
<br>
* Donahue: Will He Survive the Cable News War?<br>
<br>
* What's Wrong -- and Right -- With Interactive<br>
TV? <br>
<br>
* Why HDTV Could Change Hollywood Forever<br>
<br>
* Who Will Win the Emmy? An Exclusive Forecast.<br>
<br>
And check in daily at TVPredictions.com for more<br>
coverage of issues related to the future of TV. <br><br><p><a href=3D"http:=
//rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=3Dtpysjsn6.e9iqjsn6.rqhvuqn6&p=3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.tvpred=
ictions.com">Coming Attractions!</A><p></font></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor=3D"=
#003366" colspan=3D"2" valign=3D"bottom"> </td></tr>=20
=20
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